I’m at the 22nd Workshop on the Economics of Information Security in Geneva, and will be liveblogging the sessions in the followups to this post. Links to previous editions of WEIS, along with liveblogs and recordings, may be found here.
The Pre-play Attack in Real Life
Recently I was contacted by a Falklands veteran who was a victim of what appears to have been a classic pre-play attack; his story is told here.
Almost ten years ago, after we wrote a paper on the pre-play attack, we were contacted by a Scottish sailor who’d bought a drink in a bar in Las Ramblas in Barcelona for €33, and found the following morning that he’d been charged €33,000 instead. The bar had submitted ten transactions an hour apart for €3,300 each, and when we got the transaction logs it turned out that these transactions had been submitted through three different banks. What’s more, although the transactions came from the same terminal ID, they had different terminal characteristics. When the sailor’s lawyer pointed this out to Lloyds Bank, they grudgingly accepted that it had been technical fraud and refunded the money.
In the years since then, I’ve used this as a teaching example both in tutorial talks and in university lectures. A payment card user has no trustworthy user interface, so the PIN entry device can present any transaction, or series of transactions, for authentication, and the customer is none the wiser. The mere fact that a customer’s card authenticated a transaction does not imply that the customer mandated that payment.
Payment by phone should eventually fix this, but meantime the frauds continue. They’re particularly common in nightlife establishments, both here and overseas. In the first big British case, the Spearmint Rhino in Bournemouth had special conditions attached to its license for some time after a series of frauds; a second case affected a similar establishment in Soho; there have been others. Overseas, we’ve seen cases affecting UK cardholders in Poland and the Baltic states. The technical modus operandi can involve a tampered terminal, a man-in-the-middle device or an overlay SIM card.
By now, such attacks are very well-known and there really isn’t any excuse for banks pretending that they don’t exist. Yet, in this case, neither the first responder at Barclays nor the case handler at the Financial Ombudsman Service seemed to understand such frauds at all. Multiple transactions against one cardholder, coming via different merchant accounts, and with delay, should have raised multiple red flags. But the banks have gone back to sleep, repeating the old line that the card was used and the customer PIN was entered, so it must all be the customer’s fault. This is the line they took twenty years ago when chip and pin was first introduced, and indeed thirty years ago when we were suffering ATM fraud at scale from mag-strip copying. The banks have learned nothing, except perhaps that they can often get away with lying about the security of their systems. And the ombudsman continues to claim that it’s independent.
Security and Human Behaviour 2023
The Workshop on Security and Human Behaviour is happening right now in Carnegie-Mellon University and I’ll be liveblogging it in followups to this post. The participants’ papers are here, while the liveblogs and papers from previous workshops are here.
Will GPT models choke on their own exhaust?
Until about now, most of the text online was written by humans. But this text has been used to train GPT3(.5) and GPT4, and these have popped up as writing assistants in our editing tools. So more and more of the text will be written by large language models (LLMs). Where does it all lead? What will happen to GPT-{n} once LLMs contribute most of the language found online?
And it’s not just text. If you train a music model on Mozart, you can expect output that’s a bit like Mozart but without the sparkle – let’s call it ‘Salieri’. And if Salieri now trains the next generation, and so on, what will the fifth or sixth generation sound like?
In our latest paper, we show that using model-generated content in training causes irreversible defects. The tails of the original content distribution disappear. Within a few generations, text becomes garbage, as Gaussian distributions converge and may even become delta functions. We call this effect model collapse.
Just as we’ve strewn the oceans with plastic trash and filled the atmosphere with carbon dioxide, so we’re about to fill the Internet with blah. This will make it harder to train newer models by scraping the web, giving an advantage to firms which already did that, or which control access to human interfaces at scale. Indeed, we already see AI startups hammering the Internet Archive for training data.
After we published this paper, we noticed that Ted Chiang had already commented on the effect in February, noting that ChatGPT is like a blurry jpeg of all the text on the Internet, and that copies of copies get worse. In our paper we work through the math, explain the effect in detail, and show that it is universal.
This does not mean that LLMs have no uses. As one example, we originally called the effect model dementia, but decided to rename it after objections from a colleague whose father had suffered dementia. We couldn’t think of a replacement until we asked Bard, which suggested five titles, of which we went for The Curse of Recursion.
So there we have it. LLMs are like fire – a useful tool, but one that pollutes the environment. How will we cope with it?
2023 Workshop on the Economics of Information Security
WEIS 2023, the 22nd Workshop on the Economics of Information Security, will be held in Geneva from July 5-7, with a theme of Digital Sovereignty. We now have a list of sixteen accepted papers; there will also be three invited speakers, ten posters, and ten challenges for a Digital Sovereignty Hack on July 7-8.
The deadline for early registration is June 10th, and we have discount hotel bookings reserved until then. As Geneva gets busy in summer, we suggest you reserve your room now!
Interop: One Protocol to Rule Them All?
Everyone’s worried that the UK Online Safety Bill and the EU Child Sex Abuse Regulation will put an end to end-to-end encryption. But might a law already passed by the EU have the same effect?
The Digital Markets Act ruled that users on different platforms should be able to exchange messages with each other. This opens up a real Pandora’s box. How will the networks manage keys, authenticate users, and moderate content? How much metadata will have to be shared, and how?
In our latest paper, One Protocol to Rule Them All? On Securing Interoperable Messaging, we explore the security tensions, the conflicts of interest, the usability traps, and the likely consequences for individual and institutional behaviour.
Interoperability will vastly increase the attack surface at every level in the stack – from the cryptography up through usability to commercial incentives and the opportunities for government interference.
Twenty-five years ago, we warned that key escrow mechanisms would endanger cryptography by increasing complexity, even if the escrow keys themselves can be kept perfectly secure. Interoperability is complexity on steroids.
Bugs still considered harmful
A number of governments are trying to mandate surveillance software in devices that support end-to-end encrypted chat; the EU’s CSA Regulation and the UK’s Online Safety bill being two prominent current examples. Colleagues and I wrote Bugs in Our Pockets in 2021 to point out what was likely to go wrong; GCHQ responded with arguments about child protection, which I countered in my paper Chat Control or Child Protection.
As lawmakers continue to discuss the policy, the latest round in the technical argument comes from the Rephrain project, which was tasked with evaluating five prototypes built with money from GCHQ and the Home Office. Their report may be worth a read.
One contender looks for known-bad photos and videos with software on both client and server, and is the only team with access to CSAM for training or testing (it has the IWF as a partner). However it has inadequate controls both against scope creep, and against false positives and malicious accusations.
Another is an E2EE communications tool with added profanity filter and image scanning, linked to age verification, with no safeguards except human moderation at the reporting server.
The other three contenders are nudity detectors with various combinations of age verification or detection, and of reporting to parents or service providers.
None of these prototypes comes close to meeting reasonable requirements for efficacy and privacy. So the project can be seen as empirical support for the argument we made in “Bugs”, namely that doing surveillance while respecting privacy is really hard.
Security economics course
Back in 2015 I helped record a course in security economics in a project driven by colleagues from Delft. This was launched as an EDX MOOC as well as becoming part of the Delft syllabus, and it has been used in many other courses worldwide. In Brussels, in December, a Ukrainian officer told me they use it in their cyber defence boot camp.
There’s been a lot of progress in security economics over the past seven years; see for example the liveblogs of the workshop on the economics of information security here. So it’s time to update the course, and we’ll be working on that between now and May.
If there are any topics you think we should cover, or any bugs you’d like to report, please get in touch!
Evidence based policing (of booters)
“Booters” (they usually call themselves “stressers” in a vain attempt to appear legitimate) are denial-of-service-for-hire websites where anyone can purchase small scale attacks that will take down a home Internet connection, a High School (perhaps there’s an upcoming maths test?) or a poorly defended business website. Prices vary but for around $20.00 you can purchase as many 10 minute attacks as you wish to send for the next month! In pretty much every jurisdiction, booters are illegal to run and illegal to use, and there have been a series of Law Enforcement take-downs over the years, notably in the US, UK, Israel and the Netherlands.
On Wednesday December 14th, in by far the biggest operation to date, the FBI announced the arrest of six booter operators and the seizure of 49 (misreported as 48) booter domain names. Visiting those domains will now display a “WEBSITE SEIZED” splash page.
The seizures were “evidence based” in that the FBI specifically targeted the most active booters by taking advantage of one of the datasets collected by the Cambridge Cybercrime Centre, which uses self-reported data from booters.
Continue reading Evidence based policing (of booters)
Hiring for AP4L
I’m hiring a Research Assistant/Associate to work on the EPSRC-funded Adaptive PETs to Protect & emPower People during Life Transitions (AP4L) project. The project is being undertaken with the Universities of Surrey, Queen Mary, Strathclyde, Edge Hill, and Edinburgh.
AP4L is a program of interdisciplinary research, centring on the online privacy & vulnerability challenges that people face when going through major life transitions. The four transitions we are considering in the scope of this project are relationship breakdowns; LBGT+ transitions or transitioning gender; entering/ leaving employment in the Armed Forces; and developing a serious illness or becoming terminally ill. Our central goal is to develop privacy-by-design technologies to protect & empower people during these transitions.
We are looking for a researcher with experience in quantitative data analysis, threat assessment, data science, machine learning and/or natural language processing, as well as excellent programming and technical writing skills. Expertise in cybercrime or privacy enhancing technologies (PETs) research is desirable, but not essential. Successful applicants will review the relevant literature, design research projects, develop tools, collect and analyse data, and write research outputs.
The role will analyse life transitions from the attacker’s perspective, such as how and where they gather information about their victims. This will require the analysis of cybercrime forums and similar data at scale. Furthermore, the tools we develop are designed for an adversarial context. Adversaries include those known to individuals, such as interfamilial abuse, as well as targeted and indiscriminate attacks. The researcher will also undertake a rigorous threat analysis for each of the tools developed within the overall project.
The full details are available here.