Category Archives: Security psychology

Cambridge Cybercrime Conference 2025 – Liveblog

The Cambridge Cybercrime Centre‘s eight one day conference on cybercrime was held on Monday, 23rd June 2025, which marked 10 years of the Centre.

Similar to previous “liveblog” coverage of conferences and workshops on Light Blue Touchpaper, here is a “liveblog”-style overview of the talks at this year’s conference.

Sunoo Park — Legal Risks of Security Research

Sunoo discussed researchers receiving restrictive TOS clauses, and risk around adversarial scrutiny. Noting that it’s difficult to distinguish from malicious hacking, and we need to understand the risks. Sunoo highlights particular US laws that creates risk for researchers, sharing a guide they wrote for highlighting these risks. This project grew from colleagues receiving legal threats, as well as clients, wanting to enable informed decisions on how to seek advice, and also try to nudge public discussion on law reforms.

The CFAA was passed a long time ago, around the time of the Wargames film. Computer crime has changed a lot since then. They define computer to be pretty much any computer, where access is unauthorized or exceeds authorized access. One early case was United States vs McDanel, who found a bug in customer software and reported this to customers. This resulted in a legal case where customers were informed of a security flaw, due to the cost of fixing the flaw, but the government later requested the case be overturned. More recently, there was a case of a police database being accessed for a bribe, which was also under the CFAA.

Another law is the DMCA, which states that “no person shall circumvent a technological measure that effectively controls access to work”, and this may apply to captchas, anti-bot, etc.

Sunoo is starting a new study looking at researchers’ lived experiences of legal risk under US/UK law. It can be hard for researchers to talk openly about these, which results in little evidence to counter laws. Furthermore, there’s a lot of anecdotal information. Sunoo would like to hear from US/UK researchers relating to law and researchers.

Alice Hutchings — Ten years of the Cambridge Cybercrime Centre

The Centre was established in 2015, to collect and share cybercrime data internationally. They collect lots of data at scale: forums, chat channels, extremist platforms, DDoS attacks, modded apps, defacements, spam, and more. They share datasets with academics, not for commercial purposes, through agreements to set out ethical and legal constraints. The aim was to help researchers with collecting data at scale, and overcome challenges with working on large datasets. They don’t just collect data, but they do their own research too, around crime types, offenders, places, and responses.

Session 1: Trust, Identity, and Communication in Cybercriminal Ecosystems

Roy Ricaldi— From trust to trade: Uncovering the trust-building mechanisms supporting cybercrime markets on Telegram

Roy is researching trust and cybercrime, and how this is built on Telegram. Cybercrime markets rely on trust to function, and there is existing literature on this topic for forums. Forums have structured systems, such as reputation and escrow, whereas Telegram is more ephemeral, but still used for trading. Roy asks how trust established in this volatile, high-risk environment? Economic theory states without trust, markets can fail.

Roy starts by exploring the market segments found, looking at trust signals, and how frequently users are exposed to these trust systems. Roy notes chat channels can have significant history, and while trust signals exists, users may not be likely to find older trust signals easily. They built a snowballing and classification pipeline, to collect over 1 million messages from 167 telegram communities. Later, they developed a framework, for measuring and simulating trust signals. Findings showed market segments were highly thematic within communities, and trust signals. They used DeepseekV3 for classification, which detected trust signals and market segments with highest accuracy. They found an uneven distribution of trust signals across market segments. For example, piracy content is free so trust signals were low.

They find messages asking for use of escrow, or asking other to “vouch” for sellers. Some of these communities have moderators which would set rules around types of messages. After looking at the distribution, they ran a simulation to see how many signals the users were exposed to. Setup profiles of market segments, communities visited and messages read. They found 70% of users see 5 or less trust signals in their simulation, and all users see at least 1. Over time, these do evolve with digital infrastructure forming a larger peak. They note the importance of understanding how trust works on Telegram, to help find the markets that matter and can cause harm.

John McAlaneyPower, identity and group dynamics in hacking forums

John discussed work in progress around power structures and group dynamics in the CrimeBB dataset. He attended Defcon as a social psychologist, observing the interaction dynamics and how people see themselves within the large size of the conference.

Previous work in identity asked if hacking forums members considered themselves to be a “hacker” and resulted in discussions around the term and labelling. Other previous work looked at themes of what was spoken about in forums, such as legality, honesty, skill acquisition, knowledge, and risk. Through interviews, they found people had contradictory ideas around trust. They note existing hierarchies of power within forums, and evidence of social psychological phenomenon.

Within existing research literature, John found a gap where theories had not been explored necessarily in the online forum setting. They ask if there are groups forming on hacking forums in the same way as other online forums? Also, how does the structure of these groups differ? Are group dynamics different?

He was initially working with a deductive approach for thematic analysis. “Themes do not emerge from thematic analysis”, rather they are exploring what is currently discussed. He is not looking to generalise from thematic analysis, but rather looking into BERT next to see if they are missing any themes from the dataset.

He suggests the main impact will aim to contribute back to sociological literature, and also try to improve threat detection.

Haitao ShiEvaluating the impact of anonymity on emotional expression in drug-related discussions: a comparative study of the dark web and mainstream social media

Haitao looked at self-disclosure, emotional disclosure, and environmental influence on cybercrime forums. They ask how different models of anonymity across chat channels and forums vary, and which different communications styles emerge? They identified drug-related channels and discussions for their analysis, and took steps to clean and check dataset quality. The project used BERTopic, for embedding messages to be used in clustering, then plotted these to visually identify similar topics. To further explore the topics, Haitao used an emotion classifier to detect intent. They found high levels of disgust, anger, and anticipation in their dataset.

Session 2: Technical Threats and Exploitation Tactics

Taro TsuchiyaBlockchain address poisoning

Taro introduces a scenario of sending rent, where the victim seems to make an error selecting a cryptocurrency address. This turns out to have been a poisoned address. Taro aims to identify address poisoning, to see how prevalent this is, and measure the payoff. They identify attack attempts with an algorithm to match transfers with similar addresses in a given time range.

They detect 270M attack transfers on 17M victims, estimating a $84M USD loss. They found loss was much higher on Ethereum, and this lookalike attack is easily generalisable and scalable.

They bundled these into groups, considering two are the same if, they are launched in the same transaction, and they use the same address to pay the transaction fees, or they use the same lookalike address. Clustering found “copying bots”, who copy other transactions for front-running. The attack groups identified are large but heterogenous, and the attack itself is profitable for large groups. Furthermore, larger groups tend to win over smaller groups. Finally, they model lookalike address generation, finding one large group is using GPUs to generate these addresses.

They give suggestions for mitigating these attacks, by adding latency for address generation, disallow zero-value transfers, and increase wallet lengths. They also want to alert users to this risk of this attack.

Marre SlikkerThe human attack surface: understanding hacker techniques in exploiting human elements

Marre is looking at human factors in security, as this is commonly the weakest link in security. Marre asks what do hackers on underground forums discuss regarding the exploitation of human factors in cybercrime? They look at CrimeBB data to analyse topics discussed, identify lexicon used, and give a literature review of how these factors are conceptualised.

They create a bridge between academic human factor language (“demographics”) to hacker language (“target dumb boomers”), and use topic modelling to identify distribution of words used in forum messages.

What were their results? A literature review found a lot of inconsistencies in human factors research terminology. Following this, they asked cybersecurity experts about human factors, and created a list of 328 keywords to help filter the dataset. Topic modelling was then used, however the results were quite superficial, with lots of noise and general chatter.

Kieron Ivy Turk — Technical Tactics Targeting Tech-Abuse

Ivy discussed a project on personal item tracking devices, which have been misused for stalking, domestic abuse, and theft. Companies have developed anti-stalking features to try to mitigate these issues. They ran a study with the Assassins Guild, provided students with trackers to test the efficacy of these features. Their study found nobody used the anti-stalking features, despite everyone in the study knowing there was a possibility they were being stalked. At the time of the study, the scanning apps only tended to detect a subset of tracker brands. Apple and Google have since created an RFC to try to standardise trackers and anti-stalking measures.

Ivy has also been working on IoT security to understand the associated risks. They present a HARMS model to help analyse IoT device security failings. Ivy ran a study to identify harms with IoT devices, asking participants to misuse these. They ask how do attackers discover abusive features? They found participants used and explored the UI to find features available to them. They suggest the idea of a “UI-bounded” adversary is limiting, and rather attackers are “functionality-enabled”.

Ivy asks how can we create technical improvements in future with IoT?

Session 3: Disruption and Resilience in Illicit Online Activities

Anh V. VuAssessing the aftermath: the effects of a global takedown against DDoS-for-hire services

Anh has been following DDoS takedowns by law enforcement. DDoS for hire services provide a platform for taking control of botnets to be used in flooding servers with fake traffic. There is little technical skill needed, and is cheap. These services publicly advertise statistics of daily attacks they contribute to.

Law enforcement continues to takedown DDoS infrastructure, focusing on domain takedowns. Statistics of visitors following the takedowns found 20M visitors, and 34k messages were collected from DDoS support Telegram channels. They also have DDoS UDP amplification data, and collected self-reported DDoS attack data.

Domain takedowns showed that domains returned quickly, 52% returned after the first takedown, and in the second takedown all returned. Domain takedown appears to now have limited effect. Visitor statistics showed large booters operate a franchise business, offering API access to resellers.

Following the first takedown, activity and chat channel messages declined, but this had less impact in the second wave. Operators gave away free extensions to plans, and a few seemed to leave the market.

Their main takeaway is the overall intervention impact is short lived, and suppressing the supply side alone is not enough as the demand continues to persist in the long run. He asks what can be done better for interventions in the future?

Dalya ManatovaModeling organizational resilience: a network-based simulation for analyzing recovery and disruption of ransomware operations

Dalya studies the organisational dynamics and resilience of cybercrime, tracking the evolution and rebranding of ransomware operators. To carry out ransomware, they need infrastructure. This includes selecting targets, executing, ransom negotiation, payment processing, and victim support, and creating leak websites. They break this down further into a complex model, showing the steps of ransomware attacks. They use this to model the task duration involved in attacks, estimating how long it takes to complete a ransomware attack when learning. Following this, they create infrastructure disruption and observe how this process changes. They also model the disruption of members: what happens if they reassign tasks to others or hire a new person?

Marco WähnerThe prevalence and use of conspiracy theories in anonymity networks

Marco first asks what is a conspiracy theory? These all appear to have right-wing extremism, antisemitism, and misinformation. There are a lot of challenges around researching conspiracy theories: the language is often indirect and coded, however this is not a new phenomenon.

What is the influence of environmental and structural of conspiracy theories in anonymised networks? Marco notes this can be for strengthening social ties, and fosters a sense of belonging. Also, this may be used with ideological or social incentives.

Marco asks how we can identify these theories circulating in anonymised networks, and if these are used to promote illicit activities or drive sales? This could then be used to formulate intervention strategies. They took a data-driven approach looking at CrimeBB and ExtremeBB data to find conspiracies, using dictionary keyword searches and topic modelling. Preliminary research found prevalence of conspiracies was very low. ExtremeBB is a bit higher, but still rare.

They provide explanations for the low level of distribution. Keywords are indirect, and can be out of context when searching. Also, conspiratorial communications are not always needed to sell products. They are aiming to strengthen the study design, by coding a subsample to check for false positives, and use classical ML models. They find a dictionary approach may not be a good starting point, and conspiracies are not always used to sell products.

Join Our 3-Course Series on Cybersecurity Economics

On 2 October, TU Delft are starting a new online three course series on cybersecurity economics. I am co-teaching this course with Michel van Eeten (TU Delft), Daniel Woods (University of Edinburgh), Simon Parkin (TU Delft), Rolf van Wegberg (TU Delft), Tyler Moore (Tulsa Uni) and Rainer Böhme (Innsbruck Uni). The course also features content from Ross Anderson (University of Cambridge), recorded before his passing. Ross was passionate about teaching, and was deeply involved in the design of this MOOC.

The first course on Foundation and Measurement provides you with foundational micro-economic concepts to explain security behavior of various actors involved securing the organization – internally, like IT and business units, and externally, like suppliers, customers and regulators. Next, it equips you with a causal framework to understand how to measure the effectiveness of security controls, as well as what measurements are currently available.

The second course on Users and Attackers presents a wealth of insights on the individuals involved in security: from user behavior to the strategies of attackers. Contrary to popular opinion, users are not the weakest link. If you want to know why do users not follow company security policies, you need to look at the costs imposed on them. On the side of the attackers, there are also clear incentives at work. The course covers the latest insights on attacker behavior.

The third course on Solutions covers answers to overcome the incentive misalignment and information problems at the level of organizations and at the level of markets. Starting with the standard framework of risk management, the course unpacks how to identify solutions in risk mitigation and risk transfer and where risk acceptance might be more rational. Finally, we need to address market failures, since they end up undermining the security of firms and society at large.

Hacktivism, in Ukraine and Gaza

People who write about cyber-conflict often talk of hacktivists and other civilian volunteers who contribute in various ways to a cause. Might the tools and techniques of cybercrime enable its practitioners to be effective auxiliaries in a real conflict? Might they fall foul of the laws of war, and become unlawful combatants?

We have now measured hacktivism in two wars – in Ukraine and Gaza – and found that its effects appear to be minor and transient in both cases.

In the case of Ukraine, hackers supporting Ukraine attacked Russian websites after the invasion, followed by Russian hackers returning the compliment. The tools they use, such as web defacement and DDoS, can be measured reasonably well using resources we have developed at the Cambridge Cybercrime Centre. The effects were largely trivial, expressing solidarity and sympathy rather than making any persistent contribution to the conflict. Their interest in the conflict dropped off rapidly.

In Gaza, we see the same pattern. After Hamas attacked Israel and Israel declared war, there was a surge of attacks that peaked after a few days, with most targets being strategically unimportant. In both cases, discussion on underground cybercrime forums tailed off after a week. The main difference is that the hacktivism against Israel is one-sided; supporters of Palestine have attacked Israeli websites, but the number of attacks on Palestinian websites has been trivial.

Interop: One Protocol to Rule Them All?

Everyone’s worried that the UK Online Safety Bill and the EU Child Sex Abuse Regulation will put an end to end-to-end encryption. But might a law already passed by the EU have the same effect?

The Digital Markets Act ruled that users on different platforms should be able to exchange messages with each other. This opens up a real Pandora’s box. How will the networks manage keys, authenticate users, and moderate content? How much metadata will have to be shared, and how?

In our latest paper, One Protocol to Rule Them All? On Securing Interoperable Messaging, we explore the security tensions, the conflicts of interest, the usability traps, and the likely consequences for individual and institutional behaviour.

Interoperability will vastly increase the attack surface at every level in the stack – from the cryptography up through usability to commercial incentives and the opportunities for government interference.

Twenty-five years ago, we warned that key escrow mechanisms would endanger cryptography by increasing complexity, even if the escrow keys themselves can be kept perfectly secure. Interoperability is complexity on steroids.

Bugs still considered harmful

A number of governments are trying to mandate surveillance software in devices that support end-to-end encrypted chat; the EU’s CSA Regulation and the UK’s Online Safety bill being two prominent current examples. Colleagues and I wrote Bugs in Our Pockets in 2021 to point out what was likely to go wrong; GCHQ responded with arguments about child protection, which I countered in my paper Chat Control or Child Protection.

As lawmakers continue to discuss the policy, the latest round in the technical argument comes from the Rephrain project, which was tasked with evaluating five prototypes built with money from GCHQ and the Home Office. Their report may be worth a read.

One contender looks for known-bad photos and videos with software on both client and server, and is the only team with access to CSAM for training or testing (it has the IWF as a partner). However it has inadequate controls both against scope creep, and against false positives and malicious accusations.

Another is an E2EE communications tool with added profanity filter and image scanning, linked to age verification, with no safeguards except human moderation at the reporting server.

The other three contenders are nudity detectors with various combinations of age verification or detection, and of reporting to parents or service providers.

None of these prototypes comes close to meeting reasonable requirements for efficacy and privacy. So the project can be seen as empirical support for the argument we made in “Bugs”, namely that doing surveillance while respecting privacy is really hard.

Security economics course

Back in 2015 I helped record a course in security economics in a project driven by colleagues from Delft. This was launched as an EDX MOOC as well as becoming part of the Delft syllabus, and it has been used in many other courses worldwide. In Brussels, in December, a Ukrainian officer told me they use it in their cyber defence boot camp.

There’s been a lot of progress in security economics over the past seven years; see for example the liveblogs of the workshop on the economics of information security here. So it’s time to update the course, and we’ll be working on that between now and May.

If there are any topics you think we should cover, or any bugs you’d like to report, please get in touch!