Note: this research was also blogged today at the NY Times’ Bits technology blog.
I’ve personally been researching password statistics for a few years now (as well as personal knowledge questions) and our research group has a long history of research on banking security. In an upcoming paper at next weel’s Financial Cryptography conference written with Sören Preibusch and Ross Anderson, we’ve brought the two research threads together with the first-ever quantitative analysis of the difficulty of guessing 4-digit banking PINs. Somewhat amazingly given the importance of PINs and their entrenchment in infrastructure around the world, there’s never been an academic study of how people actually choose them. After modeling banking PIN selection using a combination of leaked data from non-banking sources and a massive online survey, we found that people are significantly more careful choosing PINs then online passwords, with a majority using an effectively random sequence of digits. Still, the persistence of a few weak choices and birthdates in particular suggests that guessing attacks may be worthwhile for an opportunistic thief. (more…)